{"id":37304,"date":"2022-01-30T13:38:06","date_gmt":"2022-01-30T10:08:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/behtime.net\/main\/?p=37304"},"modified":"2026-03-09T13:45:44","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T10:15:44","slug":"delphi-method","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/behtime.net\/main\/delphi-method\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc (Delphi method) \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a \u0648 \u0686\u0647 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0628\u0631\u062f\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f\u061f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p style=\"font-size:22px\"><strong>\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-N1iO7\">\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc (Delphi method) \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u062a\u062e\u0645\u06cc\u0646-\u06af\u0641\u062a\u06af\u0648-\u062a\u062e\u0645\u06cc\u0646 (ETE) (Estimate-Talk-Estimate) \u0647\u0645 \u0634\u0646\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f\u060c \u06cc\u06a9 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062a\u06cc\u06a9 \u0648 \u06a9\u06cc\u0641\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0627 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u200c\u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0632 \u0637\u0631\u06cc\u0642 \u067e\u062e\u0634 \u0686\u0646\u062f\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0645\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f. \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0628\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u06a9\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0622\u06af\u0627\u0647 \u0647\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f \u0646\u062a\u06cc\u062c\u0647 \u0633\u0646\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0648\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062e\u062a\u0644\u0641 \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f\u060c \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0648\u0642\u0648\u0639 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0631\u0648\u06cc\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0631\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f \u06cc\u0627 \u062f\u0631\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0647 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0628\u0647 \u0646\u062a\u06cc\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u0631\u0633\u0646\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-ZqgFE5\">\u067e\u0633 \u0627\u0632 \u0647\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u200c\u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627\u060c \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0647\u200c\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0622\u062e\u0631 \u0628\u0647 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0647 \u0647\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u062c\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f \u062a\u0627 \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u06af\u0631\u0641\u062a\u0646 \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647 \u062a\u0646\u0638\u06cc\u0645 \u06a9\u0646\u062f. \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0641\u0631\u0622\u06cc\u0646\u062f \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u0641\u0631\u062f\u06cc \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0627 \u0645\u0632\u0627\u06cc\u0627\u06cc \u062e\u0631\u062f \u062c\u0645\u0639\u06cc \u062a\u0631\u06a9\u06cc\u0628 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-1WVj6c\">\u0628\u0627 \u0646\u06af\u0627\u0647\u06cc \u0639\u0645\u06cc\u0642\u200c\u062a\u0631 \u0628\u0647 \u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9\u060c \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0633\u0647\u06cc\u0644 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647\u06cc \u0633\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631\u06cc\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0645\u0646\u0638\u0648\u0631 \u0631\u0633\u06cc\u062f\u0646 \u0628\u0647 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u062c\u0647\u0647 \u0628\u0627 \u0645\u0634\u06a9\u0644\u0627\u062a \u067e\u06cc\u0686\u06cc\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0633\u062a. \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0630\u0647\u0646\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0628\u06cc\u0634\u062a\u0631 \u0628\u0647\u062a\u0631 \u0627\u0632 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0630\u0647\u0646 \u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f\u060c \u0648 \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0645\u0646\u062c\u0631 \u0628\u0647 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u062f\u0642\u06cc\u0642\u200c\u062a\u0631\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"399\" src=\"\/main\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/\u0631\u0648\u0634-\u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc.jpg\" alt=\"\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc\" class=\"wp-image-37307\" style=\"width:479px;height:319px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/behtime.net\/main\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/\u0631\u0648\u0634-\u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc.jpg 600w, https:\/\/behtime.net\/main\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/\u0631\u0648\u0634-\u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc &#8211; \u0639\u06a9\u0633 \u0627\u0632 pexels.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"aashnayy-ba-rwsh-dlfy\"><strong>\u0622\u0634\u0646\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0628\u0627 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-L9kkz\">\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u062f\u0647\u0647 \u06f1\u06f9\u06f5\u06f0 \u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 Olaf Helmer \u0648 Norman Dalkey \u0627\u0632 \u0634\u0631\u06a9\u062a Rand \u0627\u0628\u062f\u0627\u0639 \u0634\u062f. \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0646\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u0647 Oracle Delphi\u060c \u06cc\u06a9 \u06a9\u0627\u0647\u0646 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0628\u062f \u0622\u067e\u0648\u0644\u0648 \u062f\u0631 \u06cc\u0648\u0646\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0647 \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u06af\u0648\u06cc\u06cc\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u0634 \u0645\u0639\u0631\u0648\u0641 \u0627\u0633\u062a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-2n6mYA\">\u0647\u0645\u0627\u0646\u0637\u0648\u0631 \u06a9\u0647 \u06af\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0634\u062f <strong>\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc<\/strong> \u0634\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0686\u0646\u062f\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u06a9\u062a\u0628\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0647 <strong>\u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 <\/strong>\u0627\u062c\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0627 <strong>\u0628\u0647 \u0635\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0646\u0627\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633<\/strong> \u0628\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f. \u067e\u0633 \u0627\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u200c\u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0647 \u0647\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0632 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627\u060c \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0645\u06cc \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e\u200c\u0647\u0627 \u0631\u0627 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u200c\u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0647 \u0648 <strong>\u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0647\u200c\u06cc \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e\u200c\u0647\u0627<\/strong> \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u0647\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f. \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0631\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f \u0648 \u0628\u0627 \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u062f\u06cc\u06af\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642\u062a \u06cc\u0627 \u0645\u062e\u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f. \u067e\u0633 \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u06cc\u0646\u060c \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u06cc\u06af\u0631\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u0631 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0622\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0641\u0631\u0635\u062a \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0647\u200c\u0631\u0648\u0632 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0622\u0646\u0686\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u0641\u0647\u0645\u06cc\u062f\u0646\u062f\u060c \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u062f\u0647\u0646\u062f \u0648 \u062f\u0631 \u062c\u0647\u062a \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u06a9\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f. <strong>\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u062d\u0627\u0635\u0644 \u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"fraaynd-rwsh-dlfy\"><strong>\u0641\u0631\u0622\u06cc\u0646\u062f \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-xybqN\">\u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0628\u0631\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u0627\u0646\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0628 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u062f. \u067e\u0633 \u0627\u0632 \u062a\u0627\u06cc\u06cc\u062f \u0647\u0645\u0647 \u0634\u0631\u06a9\u062a\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f\u06af\u0627\u0646\u060c \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0647\u0631 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0639\u0636\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647\u200c\u0627\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0638\u0647\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0628\u062d\u062b \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0634\u062e\u0635\u06cc\u060c \u062a\u062c\u0631\u0628\u0647 \u06cc\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u0642\u06cc\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0642\u0628\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-Z1bWEAr\">\u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0647 \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u062c\u0644\u0633\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0632\u06af\u0631\u062f\u0627\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u0646\u062f \u062a\u0627 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0633\u062a\u0647\u200c\u0628\u0646\u062f\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f \u0648 \u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u0647\u06cc\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u062f. \u06cc\u06a9 \u0646\u0633\u062e\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u0628\u0647 \u0647\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0641\u0631\u0635\u062a\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0638\u0647\u0627\u0631 \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0628\u06cc\u0634\u062a\u0631 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0647\u0631 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\u062a\u06a9\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0631\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"1-mwdhwa-w-hdf-ra-mshkhs-knyd\"><strong>&nbsp;1. \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0648 \u0647\u062f\u0641 \u0631\u0627 \u0645\u0634\u062e\u0635 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-Z1LoWAB\">\u0645\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0645\u0633\u0626\u0644\u0647\u200c\u0627\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u06cc\u062f \u062d\u0644 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f \u0648 \u0686\u06cc\u0632\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u06cc\u062f \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u0632 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u0622\u0646 \u0628\u0631\u0633\u06cc\u062f\u060c \u062a\u0639\u0631\u06cc\u0641 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f. \u0645\u0637\u0645\u0626\u0646 \u0634\u0648\u06cc\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u062f \u0686\u0647 \u0686\u06cc\u0632\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u06cc\u062f \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"2-grwhy-az-karshnasan-w-yk-mjry-ra-antkhab-knyd\"><strong>\u06f2. \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0648 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0628 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-1kWU6g\">\u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0641\u0631\u0627\u062f \u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644 \u06cc\u0627 \u062e\u0627\u0631\u062c \u0633\u0627\u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0627\u0634\u0646\u062f. \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0639\u06cc 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\u062c\u0646\u0628\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u062f\u06cc\u06af\u0631 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0645\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0633\u062a. \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u062c\u0647\u062a\u200c\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0639\u0645\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b \u062f\u0631 \u062a\u0635\u0645\u06cc\u0645\u200c\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062f\u060c \u0645\u0647\u0627\u0631\u062a\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u0646\u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0646\u0627\u062f\u06cc\u062f\u0647 \u06af\u0631\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-ZzAPgm\">\u06cc\u06a9\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u062c\u0647\u062a\u200c\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u200c\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u0634\u06a9\u0644 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0647 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class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"karshnasan\"><strong>\u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-Z1ghs4F\"> \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0646\u0647\u0627\u062f\u0647\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0646\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0628 \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u0627\u0632 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0627 \u062d\u0648\u0632\u0647 \u062f\u0627\u0646\u0634 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u0627\u0632 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0627 \u062f\u06cc\u062f\u06af\u0627\u0647\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0646\u0627\u0647\u0645\u06af\u0646 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u06f5 \u062a\u0627 \u06f2\u06f0 \u0645\u062a\u062e\u0635\u0635 \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0628 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"3-prsshnamh-dwr-awl-ra-pkhsh-knyd\"><strong>\u06f3. \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u062e\u0634 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-V1T8d\">\u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u0648\u0644\u06cc\u0646 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u06cc\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f. \u0646\u0648\u0639 \u0633\u0624\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0645\u0639\u0645\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0627\u0632 \u0647\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062f\u060c 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\u0647\u0648\u06cc\u062a \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0646\u0627\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0645\u0627\u0646\u062f \u062a\u0627 \u0622\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0631\u0627 \u062a\u0634\u0648\u06cc\u0642 \u06a9\u0646\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u0622\u0632\u0627\u062f\u0627\u0646\u0647 \u0628\u06cc\u0627\u0646 \u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right ghostkit-custom-Z1L2DBV\"><a href=\"\/main\/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B4-%D9%81%DA%A9%D8%B1%DB%8C-%DA%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA\/\"><strong>\u062f\u0631\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0647 \u0637\u0648\u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u06a9\u0631\u06cc \u0628\u06cc\u0634\u062a\u0631 \u0628\u062f\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"4-prsshnamh-dwr-dwm-ra-pkhsh-knyd\"><strong>\u06f4. \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u0645 \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u062e\u0634 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-ZsxaUl\">\u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0627\u06cc\u062f \u0628\u0627 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u06cc\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0634\u0648\u062f. \u0647\u0631 \u06af\u0648\u0646\u0647 \u0634\u0628\u0627\u0647\u062a \u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e\u200c\u0647\u0627 \u0631\u0627 \u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f \u0648 \u0645\u062d\u062a\u0648\u0627\u06cc \u0646\u0627\u0645\u0631\u0628\u0648\u0637 \u0631\u0627 \u062d\u0630\u0641 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f\u060c \u062a\u0627 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0647 \u0633\u0645\u062a\u06cc \u0631\u0648\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u06cc\u0646 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\u0622\u0646 \u0631\u0627 \u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631 \u062f\u0647\u0646\u062f. \u067e\u0633 \u0627\u0632 \u062a\u06a9\u0645\u06cc\u0644 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0645\u060c \u0645\u062c\u0631\u06cc \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0635\u0647 \u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u062f\u0648\u0645 \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u06cc\u0627\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"5-prsshnamh-dwr-swm-ra-pkhsh-knyd\"><strong>\u06f5. \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0633\u0648\u0645 \u0631\u0627 \u067e\u062e\u0634 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-1XM2hs\">\u0628\u0627 \u0647\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u06cc\u062f\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u062f\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0633\u0648\u0645 \u0628\u0631\u0648\u06cc\u062f. 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style=\"width:519px;height:345px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/behtime.net\/main\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/\u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647-\u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc.jpg 600w, https:\/\/behtime.net\/main\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/\u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647-\u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc &#8211;  \u0639\u06a9\u0633 \u0627\u0632 pexels.com <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mzayay-rwsh-dlfy-chyst\u061f\"><strong>\u0645\u0632\u0627\u06cc\u0627\u06cc \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-ZqIAR6\">\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0628\u0647 \u062f\u0646\u0628\u0627\u0644 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\u0628\u0647 \u0646\u06af\u0631\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0642\u0628 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0646\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062f. \u0628\u0627 \u06af\u0630\u0634\u062a \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0647 \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0642 \u0631\u0633\u06cc\u062f\u060c \u0632\u06cc\u0631\u0627 \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u063a\u06cc\u06cc\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a \u0648 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0633\u06cc\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"maayb-ayn-rwsh-chyst\u061f\"><strong>\u0645\u0639\u0627\u06cc\u0628 \u0627<\/strong>\u06cc\u0646 <strong>\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-1wWPJM\">\u0634\u0631\u06a9\u062a \u062f\u0631 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0628\u062d\u062b \u0632\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u062a \u0628\u0647 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0628\u06cc\u0634\u062a\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u06a9\u0646\u062f. \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u067e\u0627\u0633\u062e \u0628\u0627 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u062f \u0637\u0648\u0644\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u0633\u0631\u0639\u062a \u0628\u062d\u062b \u0631\u0627 \u06a9\u0627\u0647\u0634 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"chh-zmany-az-rwsh-dlfy-astfadh-knym\u061f\"><strong>\u0686\u0647 \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645\u061f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"ghostkit-custom-YCEd3\">\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0633\u0648\u062f\u0645\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0634\u06a9\u0644 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0646\u0638\u0631 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0632 \u0642\u0636\u0627\u0648\u062a\u200c\u0647\u0627 \u06cc\u0627 \u062a\u0635\u0645\u06cc\u0645\u0627\u062a \u062c\u0645\u0639\u06cc\u060c \u0628\u0647\u0631\u0647\u200c\u0645\u0646\u062f \u0634\u0648\u062f \u0648 \u0647\u0645\u0686\u0646\u06cc\u0646 \u0634\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0637 \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647 \u0627\u062c\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u0628\u0631\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0645\u0648\u062b\u0631 \u0631\u0627 \u0646\u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062f\u0647\u062f\u060c \u0645\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f: \u062a\u0641\u0627\u0648\u062a\u200c\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u060c \u0641\u0627\u0635\u0644\u0647 \u0648 \u062a\u0636\u0627\u062f\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0634\u062e\u0635\u06cc\u062a\u06cc. \u0628\u0627 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u062d\u0627\u0644\u060c \u062d\u062a\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u06a9\u0647 \u062c\u0644\u0633\u0627\u062a \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647\u06cc \u062d\u0636\u0648\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0646\u200c\u067e\u0630\u06cc\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u060c \u062a\u0644\u0627\u0634 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u062f \u0627\u0632 \u0641\u0631\u0622\u06cc\u0646\u062f \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0628\u0647\u0631\u0647\u200c\u0645\u0646\u062f \u0634\u0648\u062f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u0645\u0631\u0627\u062c\u0639<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul style=\"font-size:14px\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"ghostkit-custom-Z1K1pNa\"><a href=\"https:\/\/corporatefinanceinstitute.com\/resources\/knowledge\/other\/delphi-method\/\">corporatefinanceinstitute.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"ghostkit-custom-Z1Yb3l7\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/d\/delphi-method.asp\">investopedia.com<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"ghostkit-custom-Z245f3K\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/305909817_Delphi_Method\">Delphi Method, By Megan M. Grime and George Wright<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<meta content='\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc\u060cdelphi' name='keywords'\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u061f \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc (Delphi method) \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 \u062a\u062e\u0645\u06cc\u0646-\u06af\u0641\u062a\u06af\u0648-\u062a\u062e\u0645\u06cc\u0646 (ETE) (Estimate-Talk-Estimate) \u0647\u0645 \u0634\u0646\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f\u060c \u06cc\u06a9 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062a\u06cc\u06a9 \u0648 \u06a9\u06cc\u0641\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u200c\u0628\u06cc\u0646\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0627 \u062c\u0645\u0639\u200c\u0622\u0648\u0631\u06cc \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a \u06af\u0631\u0648\u0647\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0632 \u0637\u0631\u06cc\u0642 \u067e\u062e\u0634 \u0686\u0646\u062f\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0648\u0631 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0645\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f. \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0628\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u06a9\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a \u06a9\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u06cc\u06a9 \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639 \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0622\u06af\u0627\u0647 \u0647\u0633\u062a\u0646\u062f \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0646&hellip;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/behtime.net\/main\/delphi-method\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">\u0627\u062f\u0627\u0645\u0647 &raquo;<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u0631\u0648\u0634 \u062f\u0644\u0641\u06cc (Delphi method) \u0686\u06cc\u0633\u062a \u0648 \u0686\u0647 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0628\u0631\u062f\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f\u061f<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":37307,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":"","neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[35,397],"tags":[127],"class_list":["post-37304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-journal","category-397","tag-127"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v26.9) - 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